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MARCH 7,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 7:16 P.M. ET: 

IS MARCO GAINING IN FLORIDA? – From The Hill:   Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) has cut Donald Trump's lead in Florida to single digits, according to a Monmouth University Poll released Monday.  Trump leads Rubio by 8 points in the senator's home state, 38 percent to 30 percent.  It's a significant shift from earlier polls that found Trump with a double-digit lead.  In a Public Policy Polling survey released last month, Trump held a 20-point lead. Similarly, he held in a 20-point lead in a One America News Network and Gravis Marketing poll released last month.  Florida is a must-win state for Rubio, who would not have much of a path to the GOP nomination without a victory in his home state.  Late deciders have tended to decide against Trump and in favor of either Rubio or Cruz.  The strongest argument against Trump should the Republican convention be contested is that he can't get out of the mid-thirties.  We'll watch Michigan tomorrow, where observers also say that the race seems to be tightening.

WARNING FROM BRITAIN – From Reuters:   LONDON- Islamic State fighters want to carry out "enormous and spectacular" attacks against Britain and the Western lifestyle in general, Britain's most senior anti-terrorism officer said on Monday.  London Metropolitan Police Assistant Commissioner Mark Rowley said the threat from the group which has taken over large parts of Syria and Iraq was evolving, and that it was keen to repeat elsewhere incidents such as last year's Paris shootings and suicide attacks that killed 130 people.  "What we are now seeing in recent months...is the broadening of that threat, more plans to attack Western lifestyle...going from that narrow focus on police and military and symbols of the state to something much broader," Rowley told reporters.  "You see a terrorist group that has big ambitions for enormous and spectacular attacks, not just the types that we've seen foiled to date."  Anyone listening?  I'm afraid we won't wake up again until the next tragic event occurs.

MAJOR CULTURAL NEWS – Fox:   A proposal to ensure pork remained “part of the food on offer in public canteens as well as schools and kindergartens” failed to pass the parliament in a northern German state, according to English language German news site The Local.  Lawmakers in Schleswig-Holstein who supported the plan argued that pork had been removed from menus across the region in order to conform to Islamic customs. Germany has seen an influx of Muslims among the refugees streaming in from Syria and other wartorn parts of the world. Devout Muslims are forbidden from eating pork.   “More and more canteens, kindergartens and schools are taking pork out of their menus so as to cater for religious custom,” Christian Democratic Union parliament leader Daniel Gunther said.  But many in opposing parties mocked the measure.  I'm sure ISIS will appreciate the cultural sensitivity.  No beheadings for an hour.

March 7, 2016       Permalink

BLOOMBERG SAYS NO – AT 5:55 P.M. ET:  Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg announced today that he will not make an independent bid of the presidency.  Bloomberg, a multi-billionaire like Trump, could have financed his own campaign.  From CBS:

NEW YORK (CBSNewYork) — Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg announced Monday that he will not be running for president.

Bloomberg made the announcement in an op-ed piece on Bloomberg View.

“But when I look at the data, it’s clear to me that if I entered the race, I could not win. I believe I could win a number of diverse states — but not enough to win the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to win the presidency,” the former mayor wrote.

He continued: “In a three-way race, it’s unlikely any candidate would win a majority of electoral votes, and then the power to choose the president would be taken out of the hands of the American people and thrown to Congress. The fact is, even if I were to receive the most popular votes and the most electoral votes, victory would be highly unlikely, because most members of Congress would vote for their party’s nominee. Party loyalists in Congress — not the American people or the Electoral College — would determine the next president.”

Bloomberg added that he was worried his candidacy could pave the way to Donald Trump or Sen. Ted Cruz winning the presidency.

“As the race stands now, with Republicans in charge of both Houses, there is a good chance that my candidacy could lead to the election of Donald Trump or Senator Ted Cruz. That is not a risk I can take in good conscience,” Bloomberg said.

COMMENT:  Well, there goes a cabinet post in the Trump administration.  Actually, Mayor Mike was giving his non-endorsement to both Trump and Cruz.  I'm not surprised.  Bloomberg is a militant moderate.  He has been both a Republican and a Democrat, and now considers himself an independent.

Now, any third-party effort would probably have to be a group enterprise, with a candidate-yet-to-be-selected at its head.  I would not be shocked if that materialized. 

March 7, 2016       Permalink

THREAT FROM A NUCLEAR-ARMED ENEMY – AT 12:21 P.M. ET:   Of course, the North Koreans weren't supposed to be nuclear-armed.  We had an agreement with them that would have barred their nuclear program.  But they broke the agreement.  Just like the North Vietnamese broke the peace treaty that was supposed to end the Vietnam War, and invaded South Vietnam.  The U.S. did nothing to North Vietnam, did nothing to North Korea, and here we are again, with the Koreans making chilling threats.  From AFP: 

Seoul (AFP) - North Korea threatened "indiscriminate" nuclear strikes against South Korea and the US mainland, as the two allies prepared to kick off large-scale joint military drills on Monday.

The threat to carry out what it described as a "pre-emptive nuclear strike of justice" was made in a statement by the North's powerful National Defence Commission, citing the Supreme Command of the Korean People's Army (KPA).

It came just days after leader Kim Jong-Un ordered the country's nuclear arsenal to be placed on standby for use "at any moment," in response to tough new UN sanctions imposed over the North's fourth nuclear test in January and last month's long-range rocket launch.

Pyongyang has issued dire warnings of nuclear attack in the past, usually during periods of elevated military tensions on the divided Korean peninsula.

While the North is known to have a small stockpile of nuclear warheads, experts are divided about its ability to mount them on a working missile delivery system.

The National Defence Commission described the annual South Korea-US military exercises as "undisguised nuclear war drills" that threatened the North's national sovereignty, and vowed an all-out offensive in response to "even the slightest military action."

"The indiscriminate nuclear strike... will clearly show those keen on aggression and war, the military mettle of (North Korea)," said the statement published by the North's official KCNA news agency.

COMMENT:  North Korea should be taken very seriously.  Like the Japan of 1941, the North Koreans probably don't have a serious understanding of the United States, and how we react.  A war can start because of a misunderstanding. 

March 7, 2016       Permalink

OUR NATIONAL DEFENSE – THIS IS OUTRAGEOUS – AT 10:32 A.M. ET:   The elite Navy SEALS are short of...rifles.  From AP:

WASHINGTON – The tip of the spear may be losing its edge.

Navy SEAL teams don't have enough combat rifles to go around, even as these highly trained forces are relied on more than ever to carry out counterterrorism operations and other secretive missions, according to SEALs who have confided in Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Calif.

After SEALs return from a deployment, their rifles are given to other commandos who are shipping out, said Hunter, a former Marine who served three combat tours in Iraq and Afghanistan. This weapons carousel undercuts the "train like you fight" ethos of the U.S. special operations forces, they said.

Hunter said he's been contacted by several SEALs, but he declined to provide further information about the weapons they use in order to protect their identities.

U.S. military officials said they were looking into the issue.

Sharing rifles may seem inconsequential. It's not. The weapons, which are outfitted with telescopic targeting sights and laser pointers, are fine-tuned to individual specifications and become intensely personal pieces of gear.

"They want their rifles," Hunter said. "It's their lifeline. So let them keep their guns until they're assigned desk jobs at the Pentagon."

COMMENT:  Symbolic of the shortchanging of the American military during the Obama years.  Shortages are commonplace in military organizations, but shortages of rifles? 

In less than a year we will be free of Barack Obama.  A new president will have to restore the fighting strength, and also the morale of our armed forces.

March 7, 2016       Permalink

THE NEXT EIGHT DAYS – AT 9:55 A.M. ET:  We are about to see the most critical eight days in the campaign thus far. Michigan votes tomorrow.  The polls, except one, are aligning for Donald Trump.  If Trump can trounce, he takes away John Kasich's argument that he, Kasich, is the king of the industrial Midwest.  And Trump will regain the momentum that he may have lost last week, in his defeats by Ted Cruz.  A week from tomorrow Ohio and Florida vote.  That may be the decisive day.  As we've noted, Kasich must win his home state of Ohio, and Rubio must win his home state of Florida.  If Trump captures both, and that's where the polls are heading, he may well be impossible to stop, unless there is a contested convention.  The anti-Trump forces have waited too long, but they are fighting.  And don't be shocked if a third party, or some third force on the political scene, emerges.   From Fox: 

Mitt Romney said Sunday that GOP presidential candidate Ted Cruz winning two primary states this weekend proves the Texas senator can stop front-runner Donald Trump, but declined to rule out his own White House scenario.

Romney, a former Massachusetts governor and the Republicans' 2012 presidential nominee, repeated remarks from last week, telling “Fox News Sunday” that he wouldn’t launch an eleventh-hour campaign for president. But he declined to reject being “drafted” at the GOP convention in July to be the party’s general election candidate.

“It would be absurd to say that if I were drafted I’d say no,” Romney said. “We have four strong people running for the nomination. One of them will be the nominee.”

Romney has occasionally weighed in on the 2016 GOP race. But he emerged in full force Thursday when he gave a speech in which he called Trump a “phony” and urged voters to instead back an establishment candidate like Cruz, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio or Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

“It was a big night for Ted Cruz,” Romney said Sunday about the Texas senator's Saturday wins in the Maine and Kansas caucuses. “That’s because people are starting to take a better look at Donald Trump.”

Romney returned to his argument that Trump touts being a successful New York real estate magnate and billionaire businessman. However, he has a long list of businesses failures including a commercial airline and his Trump University real estate school, Romney said.

“He’s not the real deal,” Romney told Fox. “He’s a phony.”

COMMENT:  Douglas MacArthur once said that all military failures begin with two words:  Too late.  Same with political failures.  Trump's appeal, and his rise, weren't detected early enough by the Republican Party to mount a sustained opposition centered on a candidate.  But the fight going on now is real.  It is intense, and mean.  It's the closest thing to a party civil war that I've seen since the Dixiecrats walked out of the Democratic convention in 1948. 

If I had to bet, I'd say that Trump will be the nominee.   The stop-Trump movement, if it goes all the way to an open convention, can result in Trump leaving the party with his troops if he's not nominated, and that would mean probable defeat for the Republican who does get the nod.

And the FBI has Hillary Clinton on its mind.  What a novel this is.

March 7,  2016     Permalink

MARCH 6,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

MAJOR PANDER – Bernie Sanders took the pander prize at tonight's Dem debate with Queen Hillary.  From The Hill:   Bernie Sanders stumbled on a question at Sunday's debate over whether white Americans can empathize with blacks, stating that white people don't know what it's like to be poor.  "When you are white, you don’t know what it’s like to be living in a ghetto, you don’t know what it’s like to be poor, you don’t know what it’s like to be hassled when you are walking down a street or dragged out of a car," Sanders said when asked about his personal racial blind spots.   Talk about over the top.  Apparently Bernie never saw those classic photos taken by the WPA of whites living in poverty during the Depression.  And did Lyndon Johnson's War on Poverty only seek to help black folks?  The live audience for tonight's debate was predominantly black, and this kind of pandering doesn't help them at all.

AND YET... – Bernie is doing better than expected.  From CBS:   PORTLAND, Maine -- Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders swept to victory over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Maine's Democratic presidential caucuses on Sunday, riding a heavy turnout that left some participants waiting for hours to vote in the state.  Sanders, who told supporters he'd win if there was a strong turnout, beat Clinton by a margin of nearly 2 to 1 in voting in hundreds of communities across Maine.  Is this a function of Bernie's popularity or Hillary's weakness, or a combination of both?  Look, no one seriously believes that Bernie will get the nomination.  Hillary continues to build delegate strength, especially in large states with big minority populations.  But Bernie, an obscure senator from the People's Republic of Vermont, is giving her a run for her money, and reminding her that she's unloved by large portions of her own party.  Should the FBI come down hard on Hillary, will she have that many defenders?

BLAIR WORRIES ABOUT TRUMP – Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who has always been an ally of the United States, expressed open worry about Donald Trump, as did Angela Merkel.  From The Hill:  Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair expressed concern about the United States' presidential race on Sunday, saying that European observers are anxious about the prospect of Donald Trump.   In a radio interview with John Catsimatidis, Blair was asked his opinion on the presidential race and responded by laughing. Catsimatidis asked if he was laughing because of the "entertainment value" of Trump's candidacy.
"The entertainment value is high, and there is a certain, I have to say, level of anxiety as to what's happening to America, the most powerful country in the world -- it really matters," Blair responded.  He added that he remains optimistic about the outcome of the campaign.  "I've got long experience with American politics now, and in the end you usually end up in a situation where things right themselves and correct themselves, so let's wait and see what happens," Blair said.  I think Blair means well, and many of us Yanks worry as well.  But I don't think Americans, in their current mood, will be swayed much by foreign opinion.

March 6, 2016        Permalink 

TRUMP WARNS OF THIRD PARTY – AT 1:44 P.M. ET:  In this he may be right.  The "third party" possibility is very much alive.  From The Politico: 

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. —Donald Trump demanded that Republicans unify behind his campaign on Saturday night, arguing that conservatives who don’t back his campaign should fear the consequences of a third-party bid.

In another boisterous victory speech-press conference combo, Trump called on Sen. Marco Rubio to leave the race and suggested that he might not even bother to campaign if the “#NeverTrump” movement challenges him in the general election. Such a move, he warned, would guarantee Hillary Clinton a chance to replace the late conservative justice Antonin Scalia.

“If they run a third party or an independent party, if they do that, it will make it impossible for the Republican candidate, on the assumption it’s me, to win,” Trump said. “The Democrats would have an absolute free run. Probably you wouldn’t even campaign because it would be impossible to win.”
He added, “As a party we should come together and stop this foolishness.”

Trump delayed his remarks in West Palm Beach, Florida, for nearly two hours until word came that he was projected to win the primary in Kentucky. (The Associated Press projected his win in Louisiana shortly after the polls closed at 9 p.m.) When he did take to the podium, Trump said the race for the Republican nomination is down to him and Sen. Ted Cruz.

COMMENT:  Trump himself could run as an independent candidate if, as he puts it, he's not "treated properly."  It's clear that a number of establishment conservatives are talking third party, and we hear of possible independent bids by Mike Bloomberg and others.

In 1992 an independent bid by Ross Perot took enough votes from President H.W. Bush to give the White House to Bill Clinton, whose wife, ironically, may receive the same benefit this year.

March 6, 2016       Permalink

NANCY REAGAN DEAD AT 94 – AT 11:58 A.M. ET:   She served as first lady for her husband's two presidential terms.  With her at his side he became the most consequential president of our times.

She was never that popular, never as active or outgoing as, say, Eleanor Roosevelt, or as glamorous as Jacqueline Kennedy.  But her devotion to her husband and his well being was touching, and continued until his death.  She maintained a dignified, reserved presence in the years since leaving the White House.   From Fox: 

Nancy Reagan, the widow of President Ronald Reagan and passionately devoted keeper of his flame, died Sunday at 94, Fox News has confirmed.

Her cause of death was not immediately released, however, Reagan, whose husband died in 2004, had appeared frail after suffering several falls in recent years. In May 2012 it was disclosed she had broken several ribs in a fall at her Los Angeles home six weeks earlier.

Although she initially worked as an actress, the former first lady was, first and foremost, Mrs. Ronald Reagan.

"My life really began when I married my husband," Nancy Reagan once said and for 52 years of marriage they were a fiercely close and devoted couple.

"Thank God we found each other," she said in a 1998 interview. "Can't imagine life without him."

Nancy Davis Reagan was born July 6, 1921 in New York City as Anne Frances Robbins. Her father was Kenneth Seymour Robbins, a used car salesman, and her mother Edith P. Luckett, was an actress. She became known as Nancy as a child.

Her parents divorced when she was young and her mother remarried Dr. Loyal Davis, a Chicago neurosurgeon, who adopted her.

She took his name and attended private school in Chicago, followed by Smith College, where she majored in drama.

COMMENT:  Her death will remind us of the Reagan era.  Reagan came to office laughed at by many as a warmed-over movie actor, and feared by the Republican establishment as a man who might actually mean what he said.  When he left office, the Cold War was essentially over, ended largely on our terms, and without firing a shot. 

Reagan's great gift domestically, in my view, was to restore American morale, which had taken a beating during the upheavals of the sixties and early seventies, and had shrunk during the administration of Jimmy Carter. 

March 6, 2016       Permalink

POLL BLIP? – AT 10:55 A.M.  ET:  We reported last night on a new poll in the critical state of Michigan, which votes Tuesday, showing John Kasich two points ahead of Donald Trump, who'd been leading in the state.  But the poll was immediately questioned because Trump's previous lead had been YUGE!

New polls out this morning suggest that, yes, the Kasich "lead" may simply be a polling blip.  From the Columbus Dispatch: 

But two Michigan polls released Sunday morning suggested the good-news Kasich poll may be an outlier. CBS and NBC-Wall Street Journal polls showed near-identical results. The average: Trump, 40 percent; Cruz, 23 percent; Rubio, 17 percent; and Kasich, 14 percent, leaving him in danger of not receiving any Michigan delegates.

COMMENT:  Yeah, I'd imagine the good news for Kasich wasn't real.  However, you never know.  Ted Cruz's victories in two states yesterday were surprises, and defied the polls.  And Cruz's very strong finishes in two other states were also surprises.  There are some indications that Trump's behavior over the last week, plus the denunciation of him by Mitt Romney, are having some effect.

March 6,  2016     Permalink